Nelson’s News:  Real Estate in the Trenches

January through April 2007

 

Hello, my name is Jim Nelson, Top Producer and Associate broker with over 20 years experience in what I refer to as the “Gold Coast” of Northern Virginia, namely McLean, Vienna, Oakton, Great Falls and North Arlington.

 

The Gold Coast is unique because of diverse real estate, commerce, retail, metro, transportation and schools that surround the area. 

 

My web site www.NorthernVirginiaGoldCoast.com contains facts, trends and statistics relevant to the area, as well as a robust Search function that lets you search all the active listings in the area.

 

Most of all I invite you for a Starbucks and a no obligation consultation. Enjoy.

 

Gold Coast Market Trends

After eight robust years of hyper appreciation we found that 2006 was a correction year where the market declined about 8-10% and sales volume was decreased about 30% Stephen Fuller, economist GMU. Herein are the statistics for the gold coast for the first four months of the year.

 

Statistics on …

 

McLean

 

  • Average sold price in 2006 was $1,091,183/ in 2007 it was 4.5% less.
  • Average days on the market in 2006 was 56/ in 2007 it was 29% more
  • Units sold in 2006 186/ in 2007 it was 12% less.
  • Months of Inventory 10.12 months

An indication based on these statistics is that there is some price decreasing but  that sellers still continue to test the market as days on the market has increased  and units sold has decreased.

 

Months of inventory is a little high and should be around 8/9 months. Overall Mclean is enjoying a good spring market but is experiencing some concessions in the form of seller closing costs.

 

Sellers should keep in mind to decrease Days on market/Days on Property sellers have to be sensitive to price and staging their home to sell for maximum return within a reasonable period of time.

 

 

Great Falls

  • Average sold price in 2006 $1,373,384/ in 2007it was 1% less
  • Average days on the market in 2006 was 84/in 2007 it was 32% longer
  • Units sold in 2006 was 34/ in 2007 it was 24% more
  • Months of inventory 16.27

Prices have remained high from one year to the next and days on the market have remained increasingly high, however sales have improved indicating that buyers are willing to pay high prices for luxury properties or that there is a lot of negotiating at the table. I speculate the latter is true. With months of inventory so high it is a buyers market.

 

Vienna

  • Average sold price in 2006 $702,027/ in 2007 it was 2% less.
  • Average days on the market in 2006 was 42/ in 2007 it was 41% longer.
  • Units sold in 2006 were 211/ in 2007 it was 9% more.
  • Months of inventory 6.72


Prices for Vienna have remained constant from one year to the next. Buyers have retaliated by rejecting high priced homes and days on the market has increased by 50%. Sellers continue to test the market and concessions are common place. Normal market.

 

Oakton

  • Average sold price in 2006 $723,549/ in 2007 it was 8% less
  • Average days on the market in 2006 was 42/ in 2007 it was 46% more
  • Units sold in 2006 was 53/ in 2007 it was 20% more
  • Months of inventory 5.88

Oakton’s status is like Vienna, high prices and concessions at the negotiation table. From list price to finale price 5%-7% is a normal range to negotiate.

Market Condition:  Normal Market

 

Arlington

  • Average sold price in 2006 $616,180/in 2007 it was 6% less.
  • Average days on the market in 2006 was 44/ in 2007 it was 19% more
  • Units sold in 2006 was 203/ in 2007 it was 22% less
  • Months of inventory 5.01

Market Condition: 

Normal market for detached/townhouses

Buyers market for condos

 

A SELLERS MARKET is between one month and three months.

A NORMAL MARKET is between 5 months and 9 months.

A BUYERS MARKET is between 12 months and 20 months.

 

Everybody has motivation/perception of the market place in buying and selling property.  Your motivation and perception, along with your budget, will determine if you sell or buy.

 

Advice to Buyers:

 

For buyers ask for closing costs plus a percentage off list price.

 

Advice to Sellers: 

 

Stage your home, get a comparable market analysis and price it right to maximize selling price and reduce days on the market.